In last month’s commentary (The Future is Green) we highlighted that spending on green infrastructure will boost metals demand significantly over the long-term, but are we forgetting the other part of the equation, namely supply? Spending on green infrastructure could be as significant as the BRIC investment boom of the…

As LME Aluminium prices break above $2,000 per tonne, trading at multiyear highs, the market is focusing its attention on perceived tightness of metal supply, as well as robust manufacturing data released from China in recent weeks. Analysis of our proprietary datasets indicates these current price levels are unsustainable. On…

Trading in China’s new international copper contract got off to a brisk start last week, with the new contract quickly reaching just shy of 10 percent of the volumes of the long-established domestic copper contract. Launching new contracts is a tricky business, and even if the new International Energy Exchange…

The macro backdrop for base metals remains supportive, as strong demand from China — which has just announced a net zero emission target (peak emissions by 2030, net zero by 2060) — and further US fiscal stimulus (with a focus on “green” infrastructure), together with the EU’s plans and others…

Inventories are the most important signal for ChAI’s aluminium price predictions, accounting for more than double the weighting of other inputs. The ChAI model is less positive for prices at 1 Month and 3 Months, predicting they are more likely to fall than rise. What do the fundamentals predict? The…

Earlier this year the LME began to publish inventory data for stocks held off warrant within LME approved warehouses. We now have records for six months (February-July) and, looking at the aluminium market, a number of points stand out. Shadow inventories are smaller than stocks on LME warrant, although not…

BNP Paribas is the latest bank to withdraw from commodity trade finance with the announcement this week of the closure of its Geneva business. The bank’s decision to quit the market follows that of ABN Amro in August and reports that other major European banks are reviewing their portfolios. While…

As we reach the crunch point in the EU/ UK future trading negotiations, it’s a reminder that there will be big changes next year in all markets, and that includes metals. Maybe there will ultimately be a deal, but contrary to the promises of Vote Leave’s co-convener Michael Gove at…

A few years ago, the European Union’s focus was seemingly on shutting out hazardous metals, as it implemented its Reach regulation on material safety. …